Not that it matters, but I’ve come up with my rationalization for deciding to vote for Barack Obama next week. It boils down to 4 factors:
Liberal Goals, Conservative Models: Oversimplifying madly, why is is that Republicans “win” on economic policy? It might be the odious opinions that drive their policies, but I think it’s because they fit the specific approaches to work in a liberal market economy. That is not something you typically see with policies from the Democrats – there’s a long history of trying to counter the negative results of the American economy by using non-market-aligned policies. Senator Obama’s economic advisers have steered in the direction of using market-friendly processes to counter-act citizen-unfriendly results. I find that to be a compelling approach, and a potentially better way of undoing the damage of the last 7 years of tax and economic policy.
Some residual freedom: Part of being free is having the chance to do something manifestly stupid. I mention this because a fair few people object to Obama’s health insurance scheme on the grounds that it is not mandatory for all, which means fewer people covered for a similar cost. There are two offsetting features as far as I am concerned, however: Obama’s focus on reducing cost, and not forcing people to get under the wing of the nanny state. I can’t imagine why anyone wouldn’t want insurance, but Senator Clinton’s plan to essentially compel people to buy insurance without driving out the 30% of US health care costs that are effectively administrative overhead and inefficiency created by the insurance companies: that strikes me as a nice present to the insurance companies without any expectation of return from them. Usually I am right inwith Paul Krugman (not that he would care), but not on this issue.
Sometimes, preparation isn’t enough: From a basic accounting standpoint, Senator Clinton’s claim of 35 years of experience boils down to “everything I’ve done since law school,” which establishes a threshold so low that anyone can join in the game. It’s also another way of saying “don’t vote for the whippersnapper.” But the fact remains that regardless of how many position papers she can recall, no matter how polished in a debate, no matter how hard she tries, Senator Clinton stirs a real animus in portions of the electorate and turns off others. Is it fair? Probably not. But despite the strong reactions from older liberal women who are treating Senator Clinton’s candidacy as a referendum on gender and feminism at the same time that they accuse African-Americans of doing the same with Senator Obama, her preparation is unlikely to be enough to counteract the fact that the opposition will turn out in droves to vote against her, against the odds that certain segments of the Democratic Party won’t bother.
One bullshit line too far: I know as well as anyone that politicians embellish, lie, fabricate and bullshit along with the best of them, and I usually just shake my head about it. However, Senator Clinton’s claim that she voted for the authorization to use force in Iraq without contemplating or endorsing the likelihood that it would lead to war: that makes my head spin. What did she think was going to happen, that GW Bush would throw fucking water balloons at Saddam Hussein? The vibes were there even during the 2000 presidential election, if you were listening, far less in the concerted effort after September 11 to paint Iraq as somehow being involved. I fully believe that Senator Clinton is intelligent and astute; I simply can’t believe that she’s trying to make this claim.
So anyway, there you have it. I’m not wholly convinced that Obama can win the delegation – even if he manages a dead heat in California, the convention super-delegates from the California Congressional Delegation will probably throw the state to Senator Clinton, and I suspect that type of informal patronage will play out elsewhere. That’s life in the big city, but it’s no reason to steer my vote accordingly.